Despite ranking 173rd out of 198 countries in per capita greenhouse gas emissions, Kenya is among the top 20 per cent most climate-vulnerable countries globally. Climate-related shocks, such as droughts, floods, and landslides, recur every two to three years, and have cost the economy between 3 per cent and 5 per cent of gross domestic product over the past decade. In response, Kenya has built an ambitious climate governance architecture. Its updated 2020 Nationally Determined Contribution commits to a 32 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030. Three successive National Climate Change Action Plans (NCCAPs) translate this commitment into sectoral actions across seven priority areas: disaster risk management; food and nutrition security; water, fisheries, and the blue economy; forestry, wildlife, and tourism; health, sanitation, and human settlements; manufacturing; and energy and transport. Fiscal policy, which covers taxation and public expenditure, is recognised in these plans as a critical instrument for operationalising these commitments.
This study assesses whether Kenya’s enacted fiscal measures are coherent with its national climate objectives. The study focuses on policy design and stated intent rather than implementation outcomes, and covers national-level fiscal instruments.
“Kenya’s fiscal framework demonstrates meaningful but uneven coherence with national climate objectives. While fiscal measures increasingly support climate commitments, a closer look reveals a greater focus towards mitigation, which places an undue burden on the country’s limited resources. Significant tensions also remain between climate goals, socio-economic concerns, and fiscal constraints.”
